STATE COLLEGE
There are facts that run through your head when watching this Penn State team play.
They're facts you want to ignore, because you know what you're seeing at times is oozing with potential. They're facts you want to ignore, too, because the nature of sports and the spirit of the game is to judge everything on an immediate basis.
But, they're facts nonetheless. As cold as the air that bit Beaver Stadium on Saturday. As impenetrable as the steel that holds the stands up. As sure as the final score.
One of those facts is that, on July 23, 2012, Penn State fans would have signed on the dotted line, in ink, for what their football team gave them against Nebraska. A gritty effort. Enough big plays to show that there's something tangible to build on, something that will make the long haul back to national relevance seem quite a bit smoother and shorter.
Penn State didn't win. But, as has been the case in so many of its nine losses since head coach Bill O'Brien took over last season, it gave victory a good run.
This time, a little-known kicker named Pat Smith hit three field goals, including a 42-yarder in overtime, to beat the mistake-prone Nittany Lions, 23-20. They had a punt blocked, and a kick returned for a touchdown and an interception that resulted in a field goal. Those
are facts that are always nearly impossible to overcome in a tight football game.
"We didn't do good enough to win this game," said O'Brien, the frustration visible in his strained expression. "We didn't hold up our end of the bargain."
So, in the end, the fifth loss off the season is a lot like most of the first four. Too many mistakes. Too many plays not made. Too many what ifs.
It's going to be difficult, almost impossible, to judge the 2013 Nittany Lions no matter how they wrap things up against Wisconsin next week for two reasons.
First, it's difficult to ascertain what O'Brien and his staff realistically expect out of the roster they have. There are 65 scholarship players on it, and far fewer than that actually contribute. Certainly, he wants to push them as hard as he can publicly, to make them feel like this experience is not all that much different from what Urban Meyer has at Ohio State or Mark Dantonio has at Michigan State.
But getting this roster loaded with walk-ons and scholarship players born during the middle of the Clinton Administration to play at that level - or even to compete with it - is a terrifically unfair expectation.
That's why it's fair to wonder where they feel this program really is at.
"We have a quarterback who was in high school last year. We have a tight end, Adam Breneman, who was in high school last year," senior tackle Eric Shrive said. "You've got freshmen all over the place.
"A lot of these guys out there making plays, they haven't even gone through a winter workout yet."
Given that, the second fact is it's difficult for everyone else to set a bar at where the expectations should be for this team. Should the press treat Penn State like a team competing hard in Big Ten games, well enough to beat a team like Michigan? Or should it consider everything that happens on the football field with this team only in comparison to the NCAA sanctions?
Similarly, what kind of performance do fans expect when they sit down to watch this team play Saturday afternoons? It seems some are happy with anything positive they get for the time being. It seems others want the same kind of consistency from O'Brien's second team as they got from Joe Paterno's 30th.
But are any of those choices fair?
Look, this is a program that had no expectations on that July day last year, when the NCAA sanctions were announced. O'Brien reminds everyone - anyone who will listen - that plenty of these players stuck with the program when they didn't have to.
As receivers dropped passes and Hackenberg missed reads and the special teams appeared utterly lost, it became rather obvious what Penn State is: A young team.
In spots, a very young team.
And like most every young team you'll find around the country, it just doesn't make enough plays to win enough games to pull a great season from the clutches of a mediocre one.
"You can't turn the ball over," guard Miles Dieffenbach said. "We've got to capitalize on our opportunities. Overall, that's it. We just have to capitalize."
Clearly, this team hasn't heeded Dieffenbach's advice this season. It didn't against Central Florida when the defense struggled, and it lost by three. It didn't against Indiana, when special teams and the offense struggled, and turned a close game after three quarters into a rout. It didn't against Minnesota, when the defense flailed about in the first half and the offense sputtered in the second.
And it certainly didn't against Nebraska, when the special teams had the worst performance in perhaps the history of the program, and lost by three.
You can take it as a negative that Penn State lost another game in exactly the same manner as it lost so many this season.
Or, you can be happy that Penn State is having a decent run this season, not always winning but not always losing, at a time when a year ago so many thought the program would be badly limping because of the sanctions.
"It's not even just about playing in the games," senior safety Malcolm Willis said, when asked about the team's youth. "The reps that those young guys are getting in practice as well as the games, this will all be for the better. They're getting more and more experience with each snap of the ball, and by this time next year, they'll have hundreds and hundreds of snaps under their belts."
It's difficult not to like Penn State's future for that reason. It seems to have a determined coach and a young quarterback excelling while just getting his feet wet in the college game and a defense full of young players that is hitting its stride.
There might not be many programs in the Big Ten that wouldn't pine for that kind of future.
Problem is, this is a game that is always played in the now, and never for the future. And in the present, it's difficult not to think about those what ifs.
It's difficult to not look at this team and see the mistakes and the missed opportunities. It's difficult to not do the math, to add all the plays that could have helped these Nittany Lions to seven wins, or more, by this point.
Truth is, this team could be better right now, sanctions be damned, and only time will tell if winning later will relieve fans' frustration of losing how they're losing now.
(Collins covers Penn State football for Times-Shamrock. Contact him at dcollins@timesshamrock.com and follow him on Twitter @psubst)